The methodolgy or the sql for obtaining the data these curves from the private data export have already been explained in detail, but briefly…

• The Y axis is the percentage of all loans orginated of a given age that are currently 1 month late or worse…
• The X axis is the days loan origination.
• The curves stop when there is less than 250 loans in the “bucket.”
• These curves are for all loans of a given Credit Grade. One would get different curves (flatter slopes=better); for exmaple, if you were to choose loans with 2 or less inquires and 5 years of credit history you would see flatter slopes.

The range is 7-8% for AA all the way to ~55% for HR.

(Click Graph for Larger Version)

Prosper Vintage Curves

• Loan Credit Distribution is an Important Part of Diversification at Prosper Everyone has heard that you should diversify your investment portfolio.  This includes both types (for example stocks, bonds, cash, loans) and kinds ( for example Mid-cap, International, Tech, Municipal, and Credit Grades.)  Diversifying your portfolio in Prosper is similar to your larger portfolio.  First you must ask and truthfully answer......
• Vintage Curve Update -- 06/12/2008 Brief Explanation: These curves show the entire set of prosper loan broken down by credit grade and lined up along the x axis on their origination date...  As a loan goes late (1 month or worse) it is counted (either by amount or by count) as late against the population... ......
• Prosper 1 Month Late or Worse Curves The methodolgy or the sql for obtaining the data these curves from the private data export have already been explained in detail, but briefly... The Y axis is the percentage of all loans orginated of a given age that are currently 1 month late or worse... The X axis is......
• Vintage Curves 04 2008 -- Amount Late By Credit Grade from Origination It is time for my monthly update of the amount late vintage curves... The y axis is the percent of $$ 30 more more days late... the x axis is days from origination.  The curves stop when there are less than 250 loans in the bucket. There are ways to......
• Analyze a Loan Using Crystal Report and Data Export Since starting this blog I have reviewed several loans.  Since then I have developed a basic crystal report to analyze a loan (DTI, Amount, Credit, and Lender Rate) in the context of all loans on Prosper.com.  The report takes as import the credit grade and the debt to income ratio.  It then filters the loans......

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The methodolgy or the sql for obtaining the data these curves from the private data export have already been explained in detail, but briefly…

• The Y axis is the percentage of all loans orginated of a given age that are currently 1 month late or worse…
• The X axis is the days loan origination. 
• The curves stop when there is less than 250 loans in the “bucket.”
• These curves are for all loans of a given Credit Grade.  One would get different curves (flatter slopes=better); for exmaple, if you were to choose loans with 2 or less inquires and 5 years of credit history you would see flatter slopes.

The range is 7-8% for AA all the way to ~55% for HR.  

(Click Graph for Larger Version)

Prosper Vintage Curves

• A Worthy E Credit Loan -- Please Comment and Decide I recently had the pleasure of interacting with a borrower seeking a loan on Prosper. The borrower as E credit and 15% debt to income ratio and is a homeowner...  He has 4 endorsements (3 from bidders including the group leader). However, he has an E credit grade.  But I......
• New Loan Funded — Clearing a personal credit card used for business purchases — $9,500 at 18% — A Credit — DTI 46% A new loan funded (Clearing a personal credit card used for business purchases — $9,500 at 18%).  I participated via an automatic bid Low AMT -- Extreme DTI -- Autofunding.  Which means this funded at less than 15K less than 60% DTI and was autofunding.   The borrower had A credit and......
• New Loan Funded — Consolidating — $25,000 at 23.00% — C Credit — DTI 39% A new loan funded (Consolidating — $25,000 at 23.00%).  I participated via my old standing order: High DTI — AF.  Which is this loan was funded as a high debt to income ratio and was an auto-funding loan.  The borrow had C credit and 39% DTI.  As a reminder my......
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• New Loan Funded — payoff current loan and new invest on business — $25,000 at 29.00% — E Credit — DTI 37% My very first E credit loan... A new loan funded (payoff current loan and new invest on business — $25,000 at 29.00%).  I participated via a manual bid (lured by the excellent extended credit and interest rate?).  The borrow had E credit and 37% DTI.  As a reminder my standing orders only......

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Another month another update…  The picture is rather muddled right now between the accrued interest showing up in my account balance even on loans that are technically “charged off”and lending stats changing their algorithm… All I can do is continue to track and hope fore some clarity…  On a positive note I have had no loans in the 1 month late category for most of the last month…  (There are 2 in that category now, but for most of June they were not there…)

I am often asked what is the biggest thing I would do different if I could go back and do it again?  I would follow advice very similar to Rich Credit Debt Loan in the post Making Extra Money With P2P Lending. I have learned a lot about credit risks and the like, but I would have much rather been more successful in my lending endeavours… My single biggest mistake in my lending was to ignore inquires.

Here is my current tracking chart…

• Ayn Rand Indecisive Liberal, Prosper Blog, and Other Prosper Changes Prosper CEO called Ayn Rand an indecisive liberal when compared to Prosper Lenders.  In his blog post on money and merit, Chris Larsen uses The Cathedral and The Bazaar to make the argument that p2p lending is toppling cathedrals...  I find the Ayn Rand assertion hilarious. And Prosper has an......
• Hey, Brother, Can You Spare A Dime? There are many ways to secure loans these days, but due to the sub-prime mortgage crisis, banks and other financial institutions have been much tighter on their guidelines to lend.  It seems you need an almost perfect credit score these days to get a low interest rate.  Now that this......
• Green Note Review /caption] P2P student loans have exploded onto the scene this past year, due in a large part to a lack of availability of traditional loans. There has never been a better time for a p2p site to start offering student loan assistance, and Green Note is one of the newest......
• RateLadder IRR/ROI 5/08 Update -- (1.35%) to 15.3% Well another month down... Nothing major happened that would effect my IRR/ROI (like a debt sale.)  It was a fairly uneventful month for my Prosper p2p lending account, but it was a good month...  My ROI/IRR is higher on 4/5 of my tracking indices (it will be 5/6 when the......
• Lending Club Update I am continuing to struggle with the time and effort it takes to invest in Lending Club loans.  (I do not like manual bidding in the first place and you have to search the extended credit by hand.)  I have been assured that my concerns have been noted and that they......

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Brief Explanation: These curves show the entire set of prosper loan broken down by credit grade and lined up along the x axis on their origination date…  As a loan goes late (1 month or worse) it is counted (either by amount or by count) as late against the population…  The curves stop when the loan population falls below 250 (ie there are 249 or less loans that age or older)…

Recently a study from the University of Maryland claimed a peak default date around month 10 of a Prosper loan.  This would translate into the largest delta  in this graph over a month period.  Does this graph confirm or deny that statement?  Is it conclusive?  Please leave a comment.

Here is the vintage curves by count (click graph for larger version)…

Here is the vintage curves by amount (larger loan go late at a higher rate and therefore on a percentage basis you would expect an increase), (click graph for larger version)…

Here is the SQL that I used to pull the underlying data out of the public and private data downloads…

DECLARE @DTD int
SET @DTD=30
SELECT
cast(aday-originationdate as int) as 'PIT',
l.creditgrade,
sum(PrincipalBalance+NetDefaults) as 'Amount',
count(l.[key]) as 'Count',
sum(case WHEN (mld.DPD!=0 and
       (mld.DPD+(aday-observationdate))>@DTD) THEN
            PrincipalBalance+NetDefaults ELSE 0 END) as 'AmountLate',
sum(case WHEN (mld.DPD!=0 and
       (mld.DPD+(aday-observationdate))>@DTD) THEN
           PrincipalBalance+NetDefaults ELSE 0 END)/
           sum(PrincipalBalance+NetDefaults) as AmountLatePercentage,
sum(case WHEN (mld.DPD!=0 and
     (mld.DPD+(aday-observationdate))>@DTD) THEN
        1 ELSE 0 END) as 'CountLate',
sum(case WHEN (mld.DPD!=0 and
       (mld.DPD+(aday-observationdate))>@DTD) THEN
       1.0 ELSE 0.0 END)/count(l.[key]) as 'CountLatePercentage'
FROM
loan l
inner join creditprofile cp on cp.listingkey=l.listingkey
inner join LoanPerformance mld on l.[key]=mld.loankey cross join alldays
where
mld.observationdate = ( select top 1 observationdate
from LoanPerformance sub
where sub.observationdate < aday
and sub.loankey=mld.loankey order by sub.observationdate DESC )
and aday < getDate()
and aday >= '02/01/2006'
and l.creditgrade!='NC'
group by
cast(aday-originationdate as int),
l.creditgrade
having
count(l.[key])>250 and
sum(PrincipalBalance+NetDefaults)>0
order by
'PIT'

• Prosper 1 Month Late or Worse Curves The methodolgy or the sql for obtaining the data these curves from the private data export have already been explained in detail, but briefly... The Y axis is the percentage of all loans orginated of a given age that are currently 1 month late or worse... The X axis is......
• New Loan Funded — Financial Freedom / Credit Card Consolidation — $25,000 at 11.44% — AA Credit — DTI 37% A new loan funded (Financial Freedom / Credit Card Consolidation – $25,000 at 11.44%).  I participated via my standing order RL Overlooked.  The borrower had AA credit, a 37% DTI.  As a reminder my standing orders (and manual bids) only find loans with 0 current delinquencies, 10 or less delinquencies in the last 7......
• Rateladder Referral Listing: Guarenteed Money for Simple loan Guarenteed Money for Simple loan This is the cleanest A I have ever seen. I am a little surprised that it is not a AA. Account Verified, DTI 9%, A Credit. CLEAN! Purpose of loan: Supplement stock porfolio for more diversified lending (explain what you will be using this loan......
• New Loan Funded — At wit's END — $15,000 at 18.5% — B Credit — DTI 72% A new loan funded (At wit’s END – $15,000 at 18.5%).  I participated via a manual bid the loan was Autofunding.  The borrower had B credit, a 72% DTI, and is a homeowner.  As a reminder my standing orders (and manual bids) only find loans with 0 current delinquencies, 10 or less delinquencies in......
• Prosper IRR Lender “Game” Jun 07 Update It is time for the June 2007 update of the IRR Lender “Game.” Since the last update there has been a delinquent debt sale.  This is a major event for our IRR game and it remove assumptions about defaulted debt by solidifying losses and increasing the cash position.  This will cause the......

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My account update for the month shows some general improvement…

One thing to note is that with the loans in the debt sale not sold my IRR calculation is a little out of whack… Hopefully Prosper will create the loan status of “Charged Off” and remove those accounts from my balance which will them cause my IRR to be a clearly representation.

Lending stats changed their ROI algorithm which had a severe effect on my LS ROI… I am not sure the new number is comparable to any previous reading, but I will continue to track it anyway…

Anyway, here is a chart of my updated IRR and ROI values…

• My Prosper Internal Rate of Return Update (End of Jan 07) — 18.14% Clearly I am not an expert, but I like to play one on TV. In my previous post:  My Prosper Internal Rate of Return Update (End of Jan 07) — 1.67% I was tracking my IRR using the Excel Function IRR and making a monthly cash flow simplification to have regular intervals.  This......
• Prosper Days Day 2 Update The 2nd session was the Big Lender Panel.  It was great.  Worth the price of admission.  The Lenders (with links to their portfolio) were pensioner, L5, and janeybooboo.  They are all manual bidders and from the sound of it they spend quite a bit of time vetting the borrowers.  The biggest thing I......
• The WealthBoy Strict ROI for Prosper Lenders WealthBoy, whom I met at Prosper Days, has just released The WealthBoy Strict ROI for Prosper Lenders -- an open source, sql based ROI calculation for Prosper Lenders.  His calculation makes use of the public and private data files from Prosper.  He was inspired by his Prosper Blog post: The Rule......
• RateLadder IRR/ROI 5/08 Update -- (1.35%) to 15.3% Well another month down... Nothing major happened that would effect my IRR/ROI (like a debt sale.)  It was a fairly uneventful month for my Prosper p2p lending account, but it was a good month...  My ROI/IRR is higher on 4/5 of my tracking indices (it will be 5/6 when the......
• My Prosper Internal Rate of Return Update (End of Feb 07) = 12.86% for an Increase of 0.65% This is a RateLadder only IRR update.  (An IRR lender "game" update is in the works.) Here is my permanent tracking page: http://rateladder.com/my-prosper-irr/ My Prosper IRR is defined as: Monthly cash flows with one extra month using the current account value minus any loans 1 month or more late. Current......

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Any regular reader will know that last week I brought my first group listing to the marketplace. (As an aside, a group leader is no longer paid for successful listings and the haven’t been since September 13, 2007: Email To Group Leaders After Recent Changes. I think this was a good change and said so at the time and continue to say so now.)

While I certainly helped to the best of my ability and resources, the borrower did an excellent job of leveraging his social capital…

What social capital?

• He made it know that he had a job that supplemented his income. For him that amounted to as much as an extra $900 a month. By putting his blog on the listing he was not only putting his anonymous credit information and verifiable income on display, but leveraging his online assets. By adding the reputation of his blog to the listing, I think he added to the quality of listing immeasurably. Any blogger with any significant track record that puts their blog reputation at risk is serious about the reasons behind the loan and paying off the loan. (His blog is Deep Market.)
• He leveraged his interactions with me — a long time lender and p2p blogger. By joining my group and becoming Prosper friends and accepting my endorsement on his listing he was able leverage his interactions with me (email and blog comments for around a year) into additional social capital: my endorsement.
• Additionally, he used his blog to advertise his listing: Prosper Loan Listing Review. By offering links and reviews in exchange for bids and reviews he was offering a non monetary but valuable asset in exchange for buzz and bids.

What was the net result? A $25,000 loan at an interest rate he is very happy with 18.5%… His loan was bid down almost 7% from his starting point of 25.45%.

Deep Market, Congratulations and good luck… please keep us up to date with your progress.

• Lender Due Diligence I liked the previous rgf post so much I went and looked up another of his posts...  This one is on Prosper Lender Due Diligence.  The forum thread is here.  Enjoy: Those that have followed my posts know that I lend money for a bank for a living (an underwriter).......
• Ayn Rand Indecisive Liberal, Prosper Blog, and Other Prosper Changes Prosper CEO called Ayn Rand an indecisive liberal when compared to Prosper Lenders.  In his blog post on money and merit, Chris Larsen uses The Cathedral and The Bazaar to make the argument that p2p lending is toppling cathedrals...  I find the Ayn Rand assertion hilarious. And Prosper has an......
• 8 Listing Strategies to get Best Prosper Loan Rate I have had several bloggers ask for advice on their listings or potential listings...  One of them even joined my group and successfully received a $25K loan at an interest rate he was happy with... As a blogger the reputation of your blog has meaning for you both in terms......
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• Measuring Social Capital So my loan on Prosper closed at a final rate of 9%.  What was my social capital worth?  Did being a known quantity in the Prosper community help? To start with I decided to try and measure the average loan rate and standard deviation... I used the ProProsper Loan Rate......

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Well another month down… Nothing major happened that would effect my IRR/ROI (like a debt sale.)  It was a fairly uneventful month for my Prosper p2p lending account, but it was a good month…  My ROI/IRR is higher on 4/5 of my tracking indices (it will be 5/6 when the statements are available and I update Quicken.) And my EricsCC ROI is within 4 basis points of last month’s value.

When going through my late loans this morning to build these statistics I noticed 2 things.  One it is now very easy to tell which loans are in bankruptcy vs which loans are in collections.  (3 of my 29 1+ late or worse loans are in bankruptcy.)  The second is a more positive development many (more than I have ever seen before) of my late loans have collections payment pending.  In fact, 1 of my 4+ month late loans has a collection payment pending, 3 out of 7 of my 2 month late loans have a payment, and 2 out of 3 of my 1 month late loans have a payment.  Maybe things are looking up in the collections area?  Time will tell.

Anyway, here is a chart of my updated IRR and ROI values…

• Default Debt Sale Effect on my IRR Calculation (+4.16%) My IRR calculation makes several simplifying assumptions.  The most negative assumption is that all loans one month late are worthless.  In the debt sale, I received over 25% of the principal.  My expectation is that my IRR will go up... My August 1st update had an IRR of 0.57% on......
• RateLadder IRR/ROI Update -- (1.07%) to 14.18% This month I am continuing tracking all of my IRR and ROI calculations in one place. I am tracking annualized IRR for model, average and default (permanent tracking page), quicken ROI, Eric's CC ROI, and Lending Stats ROI. Each of these tools uses a different calculation and therefore each has......
• How Lending Club Deals With 121+ Days Late Much to my chagrin, I have managed to pick a Lending Club loan that is now 121+ days late.  I thought it a good time to go over how Lending Club handles these situations...  They take a different approach and it seems a much more clear cut approach from my......
• 1 Month Late or Worse Curves by Credit Grade (August 1, 07 Update) This is an update to my original 1 month late or worse curves. I believe we are starting to see the continued flattening of the curves.  Time will tell. I have pulled the public data on the performance tab by hand in order to produce a spreadsheet of loan performance.......
• 1 Month Late or Worse Curves by Credit Grade (September 1, 07 Update) This is an update to my original 1 month late or worse curves. I believe we are starting to see the continued flattening of the curves. Time will tell. I have pulled the public data on the performance tab by hand in order to produce a spreadsheet of loan performance.......

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(Editor’s Note: This is a serious post and potentially a great opportunity for the right 3rd party.  This offer does NOT involve Loanio.)

Company looks to sell all rights to its proprietary P2P lending technology. The company has been quietly in development for the past year, though has now decided to halt launch plans for undisclosed reasons.

It has developed a complete P2P lending web application that will provide any aspiring P2P company with technology to support rapid deployment in any geographical market. It is based on the popular auction-style bidding format for lenders. Front end is fully branded, and sale can be made to include branding, or packaged as a white-labeled solution.

Terms of sale can be negotiated to include customization, enhancements, and project management / consulting.

This is an extremely rare opportunity to acquire the world’s only out-of-the-box P2P lending system allowing the purchaser to enter the red-hot Person-to-Person Lending space.

All enquiries should be directed through the website at: http://p2ptechforsale.com/

Technical specifications, terms of sale, and all other questions will gladly be discussed under terms of a standard Non-Disclosure Agreement.

Serious enquiries only, please.

• P2P Lending In The News A couple of peer-to-peer (p2p) lending articles came out in major publications over the weekend...  Enjoy... The ChicagoTribue: Peer-to-peer lending helpful, but know rules Sometimes you have to take matters into your own hands. At least that's the mind-set of individuals who lend and borrow money from each other online,......
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• November 2007 Prosper Marketplace Survey with Commentary from Kirk Inglis CFO November 2007 Prosper People-to-People Lending Market Survey Membership and Loan Volume Statistics --------------------------------------------- 2007 2006 November November Year-to- Year-to- Since 2007 2006 Date Date Inception ---------------------------------------------------------------------- New Members 33,917 19,062 368,741 119,294 506,508 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Funded Loans $6.4 $3.3 $74.9 $23.9 $103.3 million million million million million ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Average Loan Size......
• The Lending Club Offers New Alternative for Consumer Credit Following $600 Million SEC Registration Back in April of this year, the Lending Club announced that it would be going into a quiet period due to the beginning of a registration process involving the SEC, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Now the Lending Club is pleased to announce that the process has been......
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With the lender statments taht were released this weekend it is possible to update my Quicken ROI…

Last month being a quiet “normal” month one would expect an increase in the quicken value…  My Quicken ROI increased from 8.11% to 8.99%.

• Prosper.com Lender Game — Retireme99 Initial Update — 10.16% to 14.88% Retireme99 wrote his own intro: I started lending in May 2006... let the money sit for awhile to see how it worked... then got back into it more actively recently.  Looking at my results I have been happy that only two loans have gone 1+ months late.  I have another......
• RateLadder IRR/ROI Update -- (1.07%) to 14.18% This month I am continuing tracking all of my IRR and ROI calculations in one place. I am tracking annualized IRR for model, average and default (permanent tracking page), quicken ROI, Eric's CC ROI, and Lending Stats ROI. Each of these tools uses a different calculation and therefore each has......
• Quicken ROI Update = 8.11% Last month was an interesting month...  I opted into the new agency test.  The new agency test is a pool of delinquent loans that Prosper has chosen to sue in the state of California. I have 6 loans in the test. To opt in all the loans were marked defaulted. ......
• My Prosper Internal Rate of Return Update (End of Apr 07) = 3.57% for an Increase of 0.24% This is a RateLadder only IRR update.  (An IRR lender “game” update is in the works.) Here is my permanent tracking page: http://rateladder.com/my-prosper-irr/ My Prosper IRR is defined as: Monthly cash flows with one extra month using the current account value minus any loans 1 month or more late. Current......
• My Standing Order Basics I have 10 standing orders in 2 groups. Group 1: Auto Funding (AF) Group 2: Non Auto Funding (NAF) I needed to split into 2 groups because loan bid closing characteristics for each type of loan vary vastly.  AF close when they are 100% funded.  NAF close at a fixed......

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WealthBoy, whom I met at Prosper Days, has just released The WealthBoy Strict ROI for Prosper Lenders – an open source, sql based ROI calculation for Prosper Lenders.  His calculation makes use of the public and private data files from Prosper.  He was inspired by his Prosper Blog post: The Rule of 72 on Prosper.

TotalROI = (Total Interest Received – Fees – Losses on Defaults) / (Total Loan Originations – Reinvested Loans) 

For RateLadder that equates to

Screen Name: RateLadder_com
Total Bid Count: 324
Total Reinvested Bids: 115
Total Originations (total amount loaned): $16,296.50
Total Investment (total amount loaned excluding reinvested bids): $10,500.92
Total Income (total principal and interest less fees): $6,067.12
Total Profit (total interest less fees and defaults): $1,138.48
Total ROI: 10.84%
Average Loan Age: 11.81 months
Annualized ROI: 11.02%

For the initial release he made no assumptions about the value of late loans. But… 

It is an open source, sql based ROI calculation for Prosper Lenders…  With the calculation being open source it is clear (assuming you can read through about 250 lines of SQL exactly how the calculation is performed…  As his sounding board during development I can confirm that WealthBoy put a lot of work into this project.  I think this is a great addition to the Prosper tools.

At the moment it takes about 45 seconds to perform the calculation for the largest lenders at ProProsper…  It will only take longer as more payments are made.  This performance issue is the main reason I have yet to implement it at ProProsper as it will take some back-end engineering on my part to calculate the values in an efficient way in terms of server resources. I expect to add it to ProProsper, but currently I am not able to find the time to do so…  Hopefully soon… Or maybe Eric or LendingStats can add it first…

Anyway, I encourage you to check it out.  Well Done WealthBoy!

• Groups, Groups, Groups... Exploring Groups on Prosper Disclaimer: I am not a member of any group, nor do I help or detract from any group... The basic idea is that a lender starts a group and becomes a group leader.  That group leader maintains to group and optionally takes a some percentage on top of the lender......
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• New Prosper Changes Digested My apologies for the verbatim post last night... But it was late... Here are the changes that affect me as a lender and 3rd party developer... On the Lender screen in the active loan summary there has been added a break down of payments received as well as a summary......
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