Vintage Curve Update — 06/12/2008古典曲線更新-0 8年6月十二日

Brief Explanation: These curves show the entire set of prosper loan broken down by credit grade and lined up along the x axis on their origination date…  As a loan goes late (1 month or worse) it is counted (either by amount or by count) as late against the population…  The curves stop when the loan population falls below 250 (ie there are 249 or less loans that age or older)…簡短的解釋:這些曲線顯示一整套繁榮細分貸款信用等級和排隊沿x軸的起始日期...作為貸款不用後期( 1個月或更糟糕)這是個(無論數量或計數)晚對人口...曲線停止貸款時,人口低於250個(即有249個或更少的貸款歲或以上) ...

Recently a study最近的一項研究 from the University of Maryland claimed a peak default date around month 10 of a Prosper loan.  This would translate into the largest delta  in this graph over a month period.  Does this graph confirm or deny that statement?  Is it conclusive?  Please leave a comment.來自馬里蘭大學的要求高峰預設的日期10個月左右的普羅斯珀貸款。這將轉化為最大的三角洲在這圖表超過三個月。這個圖證實或否認這種說法?是決定性的?請發表評論。

Here is the vintage curves by count (click graph for larger version)…這是老式曲線計數(點擊大圖版) ...

老式曲線計數

Here is the vintage curves by amount (larger loan go late at a higher rate and therefore on a percentage basis you would expect an increase), (click graph for larger version)…這是老式曲線的金額(較大的貸款去年底在一個較高的利率,因此,對一定比例的基礎你希望增加) , (點擊大圖版) ...

古典曲線的金額

Here is the SQL that I used to pull the underlying data out of the以下是SQL ,我來拉基本數據出 public and private data downloads公共和私人數據下載 ...

 DECLARE @DTD int宣告@ DTD的整數 
 SET @DTD=30集@ DTD的= 30 
 SELECT選擇 
 cast(aday-originationdate as int) as 'PIT',演員( aday - originationdate為整數)作為'坑' , 
 l.creditgrade, l.creditgrade , 
 sum(PrincipalBalance+NetDefaults) as 'Amount',總結( PrincipalBalance + NetDefaults )作為'金額' , 
 count(l.[key]) as 'Count',計數(湖[關鍵] )作為'計數' , 
 sum(case WHEN (mld.DPD!=0 and總和(時( mld.DPD ! = 0和 
        (mld.DPD+(aday-observationdate))>@DTD) THEN ( mld.DPD + ( aday - observationdate ) ) “ @ DTD的) ,然後 
             PrincipalBalance+NetDefaults ELSE 0 END) as 'AmountLate', PrincipalBalance + NetDefaults語句0完)作為' AmountLate ' , 
 sum(case WHEN (mld.DPD!=0 and總和(時( mld.DPD ! = 0和 
        (mld.DPD+(aday-observationdate))>@DTD) THEN ( mld.DPD + ( aday - observationdate ) ) “ @ DTD的) ,然後 
            PrincipalBalance+NetDefaults ELSE 0 END)/ PrincipalBalance + NetDefaults語句0完) / 
            sum(PrincipalBalance+NetDefaults) as AmountLatePercentage,總結( PrincipalBalance + NetDefaults )作為AmountLatePercentage , 
 sum(case WHEN (mld.DPD!=0 and總和(時( mld.DPD ! = 0和 
      (mld.DPD+(aday-observationdate))>@DTD) THEN ( mld.DPD + ( aday - observationdate ) ) “ @ DTD的) ,然後 
         1 ELSE 0 END) as 'CountLate',一日語句0完)作為' CountLate ' , 
 sum(case WHEN (mld.DPD!=0 and總和(時( mld.DPD ! = 0和 
        (mld.DPD+(aday-observationdate))>@DTD) THEN ( mld.DPD + ( aday - observationdate ) ) “ @ DTD的) ,然後 
        1.0 ELSE 0.0 END)/count(l.[key]) as 'CountLatePercentage' 1.0語句0.0完) /伯爵(湖[關鍵] )作為' CountLatePercentage ' 
 FROM 
 loan l貸款升 
 inner join creditprofile cp on cp.listingkey=l.listingkey內加入creditprofile蛋白的cp.listingkey = l.listingkey 
 inner join LoanPerformance mld on l.[key]=mld.loankey cross join alldays內加入LoanPerformance mld的湖[關鍵] = mld.loankey兩岸加入alldays 
 where哪裡 
 mld.observationdate = ( select top 1 observationdate mld.observationdate = (選取前1 observationdate 
 from LoanPerformance sub從LoanPerformance分 
 where sub.observationdate < aday在sub.observationdate “ aday 
 and sub.loankey=mld.loankey order by sub.observationdate DESC )和sub.loankey = mld.loankey秩序sub.observationdate降序) 
 and aday < getDate()和aday “ getDate ( ) 
 and aday >= '02/01/2006'和aday “ = '02 / 2006分之01 ' 
 and l.creditgrade!='NC'和l.creditgrade ! = '數控' 
 group by 
 cast(aday-originationdate as int),演員( aday - originationdate為整數) , 
 l.creditgrade 
 having 
 count(l.[key])>250 and計數(湖[關鍵] ) “ 250 
 sum(PrincipalBalance+NetDefaults)>0總結( PrincipalBalance + NetDefaults ) “ 0 
 order by命令 
 'PIT' '坑' 
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3 comments ↓ 3評論↓
#1 # 1 BB on 06.13.08 at 9:58 am BB對 06.13.08於上午09時58分

Well, your curves do seem to be the steepest around 300 days… Whether or not this is because of the high default rate around 10 mo can’t be seen from this.那麼,您的曲線做似乎是陡峭的300天左右...不管,這是因為高違約率約為10謨不能被視為本。 Older loans have a lower default rate as could be expected from i) because they originate from before 10 mo ago or ii) because they’re older and all ‘bad’ people have already defaulted long ago.老年人貸款較低的違約率作為可望從一) ,因為他們來自前10個月前或二)因為他們是老年人和所有的'壞'的人已經拖欠很久以前。 Default rate of younger loans is averaged over origination dates before, at and after 10 mo ago, that masks about everything.違約率的年輕貸款平均起始日期之前,在後10個月前,口罩的一切。

What we really need is a default rate by origination date, I know that is not so easy and at the same time gives the analyst room for fiddling around.我們真正需要的是一個默認率起源之日起,我知道這是不那麼容易,同時給出了分析師的餘地周圍順藤摸瓜。 ‘Day’s past origination date’ is something else than ‘origination date’ as there is data for ‘60 days past origination date’ for a loan originated in November 2006 as well as for a loan originating in January 2008.日過去的起始日期'是比別的'起始日期'有數據的60天過去起源之日起,貸款起源於2006年11月以及為貸款原產於2008年1月。

Thanks for the data!謝謝您的數據! Its good and inspiring work and very useful for further analysis.其良好的和鼓舞人心的工作,非常有用作進一步分析。

#2 # 2 JS on 06.20.08 at 4:43 am 江蘇在06.20.08在上午04點43分

A difficulty with using these curves to estimate yield is that they treat paid-up loans as dropouts and omit them from time periods after they’ve been paid.困難與使用這些曲線產量估計是,他們對待繳足貸款輟學和忽略他們時間後,他們已經支付。 But a paid-up loan isn’t really a dropout.但是,實收貸款是不是一個真正的輟學率。 It’sa guaranteed non-default.這是保證非默認。 A pool of 100 people where 99 people pay their loans in two years and the third defaults is a better investment than a pool where nobody pays their loan early but 10 people default after year two, even though the formula used for these graphs the first pool will calculate a 100% default rate (1 out of 1) between years 2 and 3 while the second pool will show a 10% default rate (10 out of 100) in the same period.一組100人在99人支付其貸款在兩年內第三次違約是一個更好的投資比在游泳池沒有支付他們的貸款,但早期10人後,今年默認兩個,即使該公式用於這些圖形的第一池將計算出100 %的拖欠率( 1個1 )年間第2和第3 ,而第二池會顯示10 %的拖欠率( 10滿分100分)在同一時期。

In order to obtain a realistic default rate for purposes of figuring out whether a credit group is a good investment or not, a paid-up loan needs to be treated as a non-default and kept in the denominator from the time it is paid to the end of the 3-year period.為了獲得現實的違約率為目的的搞清楚是否有信用群組是一個很好的投資或不付費的貸款需求將被視為非默認和存放在分母的時間是支付給年底的3年期。 A paid-up loan results in a smaller gain than originally expected, but no loss.阿實收貸款結果在一個較小的增益比原先預期,但沒有任何損失。

To address the comparable origination date issue, a version of the Kaplan-Meier approach needs to be used — loans should not appear in the denominator for a period older than their age.為了解決類似的起始日期問題,版本的乘積德梅爾的辦法需要使用-貸款不應該出現在分母期以上的年齡。

#3 # 3 RateLadder RateLadder on 06.20.08 at 7:00 am在06.20.08在上午7:00

I am not change the denominator based on status.我不會改變分母的基礎上的地位。 The denominator only changes based length of time pased since origination…唯一的共同點為基礎變化的時間過去了起源...

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