This is an update to my original 1 month late or worse curves.
I believe we are starting to see the continued flattening of the curves. Time will tell.
I have pulled the public data on the performance tab by hand in order to produce a spreadsheet of loan performance.
This spreadsheet was then pivoted and aggregated in order to produce 1 month late curves by credit grade and Markov Chains which can be used (when 42 months of data is available) to solve for the expected value of Prosper Loans by credit grade.
I have limited the graphs to smooth curves (at least 4 months of data).
1 Month Late or Worse by Count (click picture for larger image):
1 Month Late or Worse by Amount (click picture for larger image):
Questions, Comments, Screams of Anguish?
Related Posts -
Prosper 1 Month Late or Worse Curves The methodolgy or the sql for obtaining the data these curves from the private data export have already been explained in detail, but briefly... The Y axis is the percentage of all loans orginated of a given age that are currently 1 month late or worse... The X axis is...... -
New Loan Funded — Finance for an ESTABLISHED Business — $25,000 at 24% — B Credit — DTI 1392557% A new loan funded (Finance for an ESTABLISHED Business â $25,000 at 24%). I participated via a manual bid the loan was Autofunding. The borrower had B credit and a 1392557% DTI (unverifiable income). As a reminder my standing orders (and manual bids) only find loans with 0 current delinquencies, 10 or less delinquencies...... -
1 Month Late or Worse Curves by Credit Grade (July 1 Update) This is an update to my original 1 month late or worse curves. I belive we are starting to see the flattening of the curves. I have pulled the public data on the performance tab by hand in order to produce a spreadsheet of loan performance. This spreadsheet was then...... -
Loan Rate Ananlyzer Strategy Update With some of the loans that I analyze there aren't enough matching loans to analyze the interest rates. I have been thinking of ways to increase the pool of loans without changing the match characteristics. To that end from what I can tell DTI seems to be the least correlated...... -
Prosper 1 month Late or Worse Curves by Monthly Cohort One of the tricks to determining your ROI is to be able to predict the default curve. Pninen of the Prosper Forums has been tracking the 1 month or more late curves for each monthly cohort of loans. The source of his data is the Prosper Performance Web Page...  I......
Related Websites -
More Awful Economic Data… Just released were the Pending Home Sales for May, the Manufacturing ISM for June, and Construction Spending for May. All were bad.Pending Home Sales collapsed 30% in one month, the index falling from 110.9 all the way down to 77.6! Here’s Econoday: HighlightsAfter the plunge in new home sales in...... -
Test Your Credit IQ By Taking This Quiz. For those of you looking to see just how much you know about credit, you should take this quiz from Credit Karma. A good credit score can save you thousands of dollars on a loan, but many consumers don't know what makes up that three digit number or have any...... -
These Things are Hurting your Credit Score A person's credit score has become very important in this day and age. Your score is what creditors and lenders look at to quickly decide if you are a good or bad risk to lend credit to. It is important that you learn what types of actions hurt your score...... -
How to Resolve Credit Bureau Reporting Errors A couple months ago my wife and I started a passive search for a new home. We are looking to downgrade to save a bit on the mortgage, and have more money each month to put towards meeting our aggressive savings goals. When starting the house hunting process it is...... -
Prosper Mistakes I've Made I hope you are all enjoying Prosper Week. Today we are going to look at my lending past. This is ideal timing because I currently have made 98 loans (and with 9 pending verification, it could be 100 by the time you read this). Also, my first loan is a......
- Picture Frames Horse Animals Collectibles
- Pretty as a Picture Enesco Decorative Collectible Brands Decorative Collectibles Collectibles
- Data Logging Rain Gauges Garden Decor Yard, Garden & Outdoor Living
- Picture Lights Lighting Fixtures Home Lighting
- Data Logging Infrared Thermometers Garden Decor Yard, Garden & Outdoor Living
Categories:
Prosper.com, Statistics, Strategy, Tools
Tags:

3 comments ↓
Thanks for commenting on my loan over at my blog. I am trying to think out of the box on how to get a loan financed in a state like Virginia with a cap of 11% interest. Are the borrowers allowed to give lenders incentives, like cash rewards?
Kevin –
Is that the % in default over thus far, or the annualized rate?
The % is the cummlative 1 month late or worse rate.
Leave a Comment