One of the tricks to determining your ROI is to be able to predict the default curve. 

Pninen of the Prosper Forums has been tracking the 1 month or more late curves for each monthly cohort of loans. The source of his data is the Prosper Performance Web Page…

 I have only one BIG problem with the stark picture these curves express.  It is all loans.  I would much rather see a loans late % for all cohort for each cohorts 1, 2, 3, 4, … month periods broken down by credit grade.  That way people like me that have avoided HR (completely) and E (1 loan) and D (less than 5% of portfolio) can see expected performance.  In fact, I think I will try to produce just such a graph.

BTW –

Here is a link to the original forum post.  A warning, this thread is very long at this point.

http://forums.prosper.com/index.php?showtopic=11290

Related Posts

• 1 Month Late or Worse Curves by Credit Grade I have pulled the public data on the performance tab by hand in order to produce a spreadsheet of loan performance. This spreadsheet was then pivoted and aggregated in order to produce 1 month late curves by credit grade and Markov Chains which can be used (when 42 months of data is......
• New Loan Funded — Blessings are coming — $10,000 at 26% — D Credit — DTI 84% A new loan funded (Blessings are coming – $10,000 at 26%).  I participated via a manual bid the loan was Autofunding.  The borrower had D credit and 84% DTI and is a homeowner.  As a reminder my standing orders (and manual bids) only find loans with 0 current delinquencies, 10 or less delinquencies in......
• Prime Borrowing on Prosper Hits Record Levels -- Febuary Marketplace Survey SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 11, 2008--Spurred by the credit crunch, attractive rates, and lender demand for conservative assets, Prosper (www.prosper.com), America's largest people-to-people lending marketplace with over 600,000 members and $120 million in funded loans, reported that the number of prime borrowers (720+ credit scores) creating listings and obtaining loans continues......
• Blogger Wants a Prosper Listing Review A blogger (The Property Pundit) emailed me and asked for a listing review and so I ask my readers. Please review this listing. Would you bid? Why or Why Not? How can the listing be improved? A credit grade and clean extended credit. $25 Bonus For New Lenders How to......
• 1 Month Late or Worse Curves by Credit Grade (September 1, 07 Update) This is an update to my original 1 month late or worse curves. I believe we are starting to see the continued flattening of the curves. Time will tell. I have pulled the public data on the performance tab by hand in order to produce a spreadsheet of loan performance.......

Related Websites

• What the Olympics Can Teach Us About Network Marketing Success Rachel Flatt waves after receiving her medal after winning the ladies free skate at the U.S. Figure Skating Championships in Spokane, Wash., Saturday, Jan. 23, 2010. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson) The Winter 2010 Olympics will begin in Vancouver, Canada in less than 3 weeks. Being an Olympic athlete is not......
• Seemingly Harmless Activities May Harm your Credit Your credit score is a vital number that determines how businesses and financial institutions treat you. Everything we do financially has an effect on our score, for good or bad. What surprises many people is how seemingly minor or harmless activities can have a big, negative impact. Described here are......
• Tax Carnival #41: TaxtoberFest 2008 I think a vital area of personal finance blogging is the explanation of tax issues.  I recently wrote an article titled, "Simple Explanation of Estate Taxes" was chosen for the Tax Carnival #41: TaxoberFest 2008.  The whole Carnival hosted here by Don't Mess with Taxes is a ridiuclous amount of......
• Motivation and How Do We Find It? May third, really the forth as it’s just after midnight. Israel had asked me if I was interested in writing for him here, he and I have been talking a lot of paintball and even more Internet. At first I was really taken back, I have little respect for my......
• The WealthBoy Strict ROI for Prosper Lenders As I was writing my Rule of 72 on Prosper article for the official Prosper Blog, I began to think about developing my own ROI calculation based on what I had written. I had attempted creating an ROI calculation once before that was based on actual payments received, but I......

Online Stores

• Spools, Thread Sewing Antiques
• Thread, Epoxy Coatings Rod Building Repair Fishing

If you liked this article, vote for it on del.icio.us and stumbleupon.


Categories:

Prosper.com, Statistics

Tags:

azerbaijan, mozambique